National Hurricane Center - While Marco isn't likely to impact Arkansas very much, Hurricane Laura could be a different story.
All eyes are on Hurricane Laura as it brews and inches closer to the Gulf coast.
Marco was recently a Tropical Depression, but is dying out as a Post Tropical Cyclone and is dissipating.
While some rainfall in south Arkansas can’t be ruled out, Marco isn’t expected to have much of an impact on our weather in Arkansas.
Laura its just now on its way of leaving Cuba and entering the middle part of the Gulf, which is now Hurricane Laura.
The track has it making landfall along the Louisiana/Texas coast as a Category 3 storm, weakening from there over land. Turning back into a storm and a depression as the remnants comes over Arkansas Thursday late afternoon into early Friday.
From that time frame, the Eastern half of the state on the strongest right side of the storm has the potential to see severe storms, the heaviest rain, weak spin up, tornadoes, etc. But, the track can always shift.
Once Laura gets out into the Gulf today we can have a clearer understanding with the intensity and what impacts we could see from it in Arkansas.
We should start clearing out late Friday into the weekend.
Hurricane Laura is intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a major hurricane prior to striking the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coasts late Wednesday or early Thursday. Life-threatening storm surge and destructive winds will batter the coast and a threat of flooding rain and strong winds will extend well inland.
Residents along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts should prepare now for a hurricane strike. Follow any evacuation orders issued by local or state officials.
Laura became the fourth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday morning, based on measurements taken by NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft.
Laura has prompted hurricane and storm surge watches for the Gulf Coast. Hurricane warnings could be issued for parts of these areas later today.
A hurricane watch has been posted from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and also extends inland to include parts of the eastern Houston metro, Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, Lake Charles and Lafayette, Louisiana. This means tropical storm conditions (winds 40 mph or greater) are possible in these areas by Wednesday afternoon and hurricane conditions (winds greater than 74 mph) are possible by late Wednesday.
A storm surge watch has also been issued from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. This watch, meaning life-threatening inundation of water moving ashore over land is possible within the area in 48 hours or less. The watch includes Galveston Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.
Laura was centered more than 600 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana on Tuesday. It's tracking to the west-northwest at just over 15 mph.
Satellite imagery shows the storm is becoming increasingly organized as it moves into a favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast shows Laura will continue to track west-northwest through early Wednesday before turning more to the northwest.
It's possible Laura could undergo a period of rapid intensification according to the NHC. That means it could have a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
Laura is predicted to become a major hurricane - Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - prior to making landfall somewhere along the southwest Louisiana or upper Texas coasts Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in these areas by Wednesday. There may still be subtle, yet important changes to the track and intensity forecast over the next day or so.
For instance, any westward shift of the track could increase the threat of Laura's strongest winds, storm surge and rain in the Houston-Galveston metro area. As a result, residents in these areas should prepare for a potential hurricane strike.
"Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 hours is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph," the NHC said early Tuesday morning.
The bottom line is that Laura is likely to bring storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to parts of Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts beginning Wednesday. Keep in mind that a hurricane isn't just a point. Impacts will extend far from where the center eventually moves inland.
The highest potential surge is expected along and to the immediate east of the center of Laura as it moves ashore Wednesday night or early Thursday.
According to the National Hurricane Center, that could lead to inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake and Vermilion Bay, if it occurs at high tide.
Larger swells generated by Laura could begin to arrive along the northern Gulf Coast as soon as later Tuesday and will continue to increase and spread west. These will likely be accompanied by dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding, particularly at high tide, which is generally each morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along parts of the western Gulf Coast by Wednesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible in the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday.
Areas that see the strongest winds on the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts could have widespread power outages, downed trees and structural damage. The potential for tree damage and power outages could affect areas farther inland along the path of Laura across eastern Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas.
