Regardless of Sen. Tom Cotton’s personal reasons for deciding not to run for president in 2024, politically it’s looking like a smart move.
Cotton announced last November that he would not be making the race despite having previously made repeated trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, which host the first two Republican contests. He cited his desire to be at home for his two young sons as his reason for not making the run.
I don’t doubt his family was a big part of his motivation for staying in the Senate. But I’d be surprised if he didn’t survey the political situation and decide 2024 was not his year.
Cotton would not have won because Republican primary voters still largely support former President Trump. Also, many would not agree with Cotton on one of his signature issues.
Cotton would escalate American military involvement in Ukraine. He’s criticized President Biden for not doing enough.
Many Republican voters don’t feel that way. A Pew Research Center survey in June found that 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say the United States is giving too much support to Ukraine. The latest number has crept up a little since January, when 40% wanted less support (or no support) for Ukraine. It’s far more than the 9% that felt that way in March 2022. Only 14% of Republicans agree with Cotton that the United States is not doing enough.
The longer this war goes on, the more support Ukraine will lose. Trump doesn’t condemn Russia and in fact called Putin a “genius” shortly after the invasion. Considering how the war has gone for Russia, that is not an accurate description. Trump now says he would end the war in 24 hours if he were president.
In contrast, only 14% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Americans thought the United States was doing too much for Ukraine.
I’m 54 years old. In my formative years when Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush served as president, the Republicans were the party most inclined to stand up to the Soviet Union while supporting a powerful military. Some of the Democrats were the peaceniks. Times change.
Cotton is good enough at fanning the culture war flames that he wouldn’t have been as vulnerable as some other candidates to attacks by Trump and his supporters.
But it’s hard to see how he, or anyone else in the Republican Party, can unseat Trump. Polls show the former president to be far ahead of his rivals both in voter support and fundraising.
Now the debates are approaching. The Republican National Committee wanted to winnow down the field early, and it looks like it’s succeeding. At this point, only six candidates are on track to qualify for the first debate Aug. 23 by polling at 1% and by having 40,000 donors, according to USA Today. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson reported having 6,444 donors, so he’s nowhere near the stage.
It’s looking more and more like the debates, assuming Trump participates, will consist of 6-8 candidates. Those who qualify can at least make their case as they try to make a dent in Trump’s big lead.
Those who don’t qualify will find it harder and harder to raise money until they finally can’t continue. Some may not survive long enough to make it to the Iowa caucus Jan. 15.
A lot can happen in the intervening six months. Trump has legal problems, of course, and at 77 he is older than he looks (and not that much younger than the 80-year-old Biden). Republican voters could change their minds and decide they like someone else.
But contrary to the wishes of many traditional Republicans, Trump hasn’t just somehow gone away. Neither have Republican voters moved away from Trump toward someone younger and/or more conventional. He’s still the party’s leader among its voters, and no one else is close.
Whatever his personal motivations, Cotton was smart to recognize this politically. He’s 46 years old, so he has time to run later when the political winds may shift more in his favor.
That may happen four years from now or later. Either way, his kids will age, and so will Trump.
Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist published in 13 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.
