This column is being sent to newspapers on Tuesday, so I don’t know who won the presidential election, assuming anyone does by the time you read this. I do know this: Because of the Electoral College, voters lost.
Americans who live in 43 states – including Arkansas – lost because they were ignored. The campaigns knew former President Trump would win the red states while Vice President Harris would win the blue states. Voters in those states cast ballots knowing the results were not in doubt.
Did the other seven battleground states fare better? Hardly. With 43 states discounted, campaigns had gobs of money to flood those states with ads. According to the ad tracking firm AdImpact and NPR, the presidential campaigns have spent $576 million in Pennsylvania alone. Can you imagine the toxic environment Pennsylvanians have endured for months every time they turned on the TV or went online?
Another issue with the Electoral College is that it makes every election a razor-thin contest turning on a few hundred thousand votes in selected states. This creates chaos and uncertainty even when the popular vote is not close.
What could be done to create real, national elections that involve all Americans, encourage candidates to traverse the entire country, result in clear winners, and let normal life return shortly after an election, as it should? Let’s consider two options.
One is a national popular vote, which is the simplest solution. In that system, everyone’s vote counts the same, regardless of how red, blue or purple their state is. Harris and Trump would have needed Arkansans’ votes as much as they needed Pennsylvanians’.
The downside of the national popular vote is that it takes the states out of the equation. Smaller, rural states like Arkansas would get less attention than big cities. A close election could require a complicated national recount.
There is another option: Keep the Electoral College, but fix it.
One possibility is multiplying each state’s current electors by 10, awarding electors proportionally based on the popular vote, and then awarding another 10% to the state’s winner. Candidates must win 3% of the vote to qualify. If third parties and independents win less, then those remaining electors also would go to the state’s winner.
Under that scenario, Arkansas would have 66 electoral votes instead of six. In the 2020 election, Trump would have won 45 votes while President Biden would have won 21. Trump would have won 37 votes proportionally, plus six more for winning the state, plus the two leftover votes coming from the third party candidates who didn’t reach 3%. He also would have won electoral votes in blue state California, while Biden would have won electoral votes in red state Texas.
I’m sure there are some scenarios where this system would be messier than the current one. For example, there potentially could be no majority winner if there’s a strong third party or independent candidate, as there was in 1992 when Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote. If that happens in the current system, the House of Representatives picks the winner, with each state delegation having one vote.
There’s a solution for that problem too: ranked choice voting, where voters rank their choices on the ballot. If no one wins a majority of first-place choices, then voters’ second choices come into play until a candidate wins a majority. For that reason, it’s also called “instant runoff voting.”
Ranked choice voting is slowing growing in popularity. It addresses the “spoiler effect” that causes voters to believe they must vote for the least objectionable major party candidate even if they prefer a third choice. They can vote their conscience first and then pick that major party candidate second.
Another advantage of ranked choice voting is that it helps produce consensus. A candidate who is the first choice of many voters – but also the second choice of many others – would be preferable to a polarizing candidate elected by a small majority but strongly disliked by half the electorate. Also, if the United States ever becomes a multi-party democracy, it would help prevent the election of a fringe candidate who wins 20% while the mainstream candidates split the rest.
No electoral system will be perfect, including a national popular vote and a modified Electoral College.
I do want one where an Arkansan’s vote is as valued as a Pennsylvanian’s. I’m sure we can figure one out.
Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist published in 17 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.
